The projection was made by PETROAN's National President, Billy Gillis-Harry, in a formal statement released on Monday. According to Gillis-Harry, the deepening geopolitical confrontation involving Israel, the United States, and Iran is already driving global crude oil prices to levels not seen in nearly three years — and the domestic consequences for Nigerian fuel consumers could be severe if the hostilities show no sign of abating.
"PMS could rise close to N2,000 per litre while AGO may approach N3,000 per litre if the situation persists," Gillis-Harry stated, using the industry abbreviations for Premium Motor Spirit — petrol — and Automotive Gas Oil — diesel.
The warning is not abstract. Global crude oil prices recently crossed the $100 per barrel mark, the highest level recorded since July 2022, driven by intensified military exchanges in the Middle East that have rattled energy traders and stoked fears of prolonged supply disruption.
How the Middle East Conflict Is Driving Up Nigeria's Fuel Prices
Gillis-Harry explained that sustained drone and missile attacks across the region have significantly elevated the risk profile of critical oil infrastructure and vital maritime shipping routes — particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil supply passes daily.
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This combination of infrastructure risk and supply chain uncertainty is feeding directly into the pricing mechanisms of global petroleum markets. When crude prices rise sharply on international exchanges, the cost of refined petroleum products — petrol, diesel, kerosene — follows within days, regardless of where in the world those products are ultimately consumed.
Nigeria is especially exposed to this dynamic. Despite being one of Africa's largest crude oil producers, the country still imports the bulk of its refined fuel, meaning that every spike in international crude prices translates almost immediately into pressure on domestic pump prices. The surge in global crude costs has already triggered upward adjustments at filling stations across Nigeria, underscoring just how tightly the country's retail fuel market is wired to developments in markets thousands of kilometres away.
This comes on the heels of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery raising its gantry price to N1,175 per litre — its third increase in a single week — adding another layer of upstream pressure to the market even before any further escalation in the Middle East is factored in.
Faced with this mounting external pressure, Gillis-Harry issued a direct appeal to Bayo Ojulari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, urging him to urgently prioritise the activation of Nigeria's dormant domestic refining capacity as a matter of national economic security.
Specifically, PETROAN called for the immediate operationalisation of the Area 5 plant at the Port Harcourt Refinery and the Warri Refinery — two government-owned facilities that have long been cited as critical to reducing Nigeria's dependence on imported refined products but have yet to achieve meaningful output.
The logic is straightforward: a country sitting on vast crude oil reserves and possessing refining infrastructure — however underutilised — should not be as vulnerable to international price shocks as Nigeria currently is. Every barrel of petrol or diesel refined domestically is one less barrel that must be purchased on volatile international markets at rates set by geopolitical forces entirely outside Nigeria's control.
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